oracle aide

January 6, 2013

A graphic solver for Bayesian problems using Venn Pie Charts

Filed under: bayes, statistics — oracleaide @ 5:17 am

Here is a link to another HTML5 demo – a Venn Pie Chart  showing solutions for simple Bayesian problems.

The point I am trying to make is that solution is the ratio between the areas of the silver and gray sectors, or, rather, lengths of corresponding arcs.

Screenshot:
solver

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2 Comments »

  1. Very interesting. I’m working on a video on Bayes Theorem using a branching method I have not yet seen (and came across this while researching other ideas). I like this method as well. One thing that would be interesting would be to do away with the overlap. For example. Initially it would be one slice (1% women with cancer) and 99% without cancer. Then we slice these pieces in half accordingly (80/20) and (9.6/99.4). THEN after hearing our evidence “cancer”, we delete all the slices that represent “no cancer”. Then the “Bayesian update” would be the process of “filling up the pie” .. scaling all pieces so that it’s full again. Finally, we can grab P(A|B) directly by looking at a single slice….

    Comment by britcruise — January 23, 2013 @ 5:15 am

    • Thank you!
      You are suggesting a valid and logical sequence.

      In my case overlap provides an analogy with the intersect operator.
      Roughly, this is the difference between our approaches:

      I am thinking about the pie chart diagram as a cross section of a tree diagram (e.g. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Bayes_theorem_tree_diagrams.svg) in the point where branches split.
      Probably I just need to draw it.

      If you try the solver http://dl.dropbox.com/u/133074120/venn_pie_solver.html with a recent version of Chrome – you will see animated pie charts.
      Sectors change dynamically if you click controls or use arrow keys.
      This could look like what you are describing.

      Comment by oracleaide — January 23, 2013 @ 9:53 pm


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